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02/06/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Not having their starting goaltender over the weekend did little to help Detroit shake off its road issues. However, a trip to Phoenix just might do the trick.
The Red Wings look to record a sweep of their season series with the Coyotes, but must do so once again tonight without All-Star Jimmy Howard in net.
The NHL leader with 32 wins, Howard suffered a broken finger versus the Canucks on Thursday that was expected to sideline the netminder for at least the rest of Detroit's five-game road trip. The Red Wings conclude the swing tonight before a meeting with the Oilers on Wednesday at home, where Detroit has won a club-record 17 straight.
Detroit, though, dipped to 2-1-1 on its swing and 15-14-1 as the guest this year with Saturday's 5-4 shootout loss to Edmonton. Ty Conklin got the start in Howard's absence, but was replaced by the recently-recalled Joey MacDonald at the start of the second after allowing three goals on nine shots.
MacDonald stopped 22-of-23 shots faced the rest of the way, but yielded two goals in the shootout.
The Red Wings trailed 3-1 at the end of the first, getting a short-handed goal from Valtteri Filppula, but netted three straight goals in the third. Todd Bertuzzi had two of them to give him 301 goals in his career, but Edmonton tied the game with 39 ticks left in regulation.
"If anything, we should feel good we got the one point," Bertuzzi said. "We didn't play very well in the first period. In the second we got a little better and obviously turned it on in the third period, but we still wanted the two points. We gave ourselves a good chance to do it, just came up a little short."
Detroit's two-game win streak came to an end with only its second loss in 11 games. It still sits on top of the NHL standings with 72 points, one more than the East-leading New York Rangers.
The Red Wings have taken their first three meetings with the Coyotes this season by a 11-6 margin, winning the past two encounters in a shootout. Five of the past seven meetings between these clubs have gone past regulation, with Detroit winning four of those.
Phoenix will try to keep the game just 60 minutes long this evening as it tries to avoid its first series sweep versus Detroit since 2007-08. Howard had been in net for the three previous encounters for the Red Wings, who are 10-1-2 in their last 13 trips to the desert.
The Coyotes conclude a season-long six-game homestand with this meeting and improved to 2-2-1 on the stand with Saturday's 5-3 win over the Sharks. That victory has Phoenix tied for 11th in the Western Conference, four points back of a playoff spot.
Mike Smith made 32 saves, but did yield a score with 32 seconds left in the game to make it a one-goal contest. However, Radim Vrbata accounted for the final margin with an empty-net tally as the Coyotes bounced back from last Tuesday's 4-1 loss to the Ducks with their third victory in 10 games (3-4-3).
"I thought we competed hard and did some things better than the other night," Coyotes head coach Dave Tippett said. "We got a couple of good bounces that went our way and we were able to use that as a confidence builder and find a way to get a win."
Vrbata and Martin Hanzal finished with a goal and an assist each, while Lauri Korpikoski netted a pair of goals. Ray Whitney was one of three Phoenix skaters to notch two assists and has six points over his past four games.
Whitney is slated to skate in the 1,200th game of his career this evening.
Smith, meanwhile, set a new career high with his 19th win of the season on Saturday. In his first campaign with the Coyotes, the 29-year-old is just two appearances shy of the personal-best 42 games he played in with the Lightning in 2009-10.
<< Thunder invade Portland's Rose Garden
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The West's best faces a tough test tonight as Oklahoma City
resumes a five-game road trip against a Portland team that has been dominant
in Rip City.
The Thunder are an NBA-best 18-5 despite losing the opener of their
<< Nuggets target a win vs. visiting Rockets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The suddenly shaky Denver Nuggets will try to avoid a
season-high third straight loss tonight when they welcome the Houston Rockets
to Pepsi Center.
The Nuggets, who are opening up a three-game homestand, have dro
<< Giddy up: Spurs begin Rodeo Road Trip in Memphis
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - San Antonio opens up its annual Rodeo Road Trip tonight in
Memphis against the Grizzlies.
Since 2003, the Spurs have been forced on an extended trek for much of
February since the AT&T Center hosts the ann
<< Cousins leads Kings into New Orleans
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - DeMarcus Cousins hopes to build on one of his best games as
a professional when the Sacramento Kings shoot for a season-high third
straight victory tonight in the Big Easy against the New Orleans Hornets.
Cousins h
Clippers resume road trip in Orlando >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A possible trade destination for Dwight Howard is Los
Angeles with the revamped Clippers. For now, however, Howard is still property
of the Orlando Magic, who will open a three-game homestand tonight versus
the Clippers at Am
Kobe leads Lakers into Philadelphia >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The superstars keep rolling into South Philly and Los
Angeles Lakers stud Kobe Bryant is next on the A-list when he leads his team
against the 76ers tonight from Wells Fargo Center.
Dwight Howard, Derrick Rose, LeBron Jame
Bulls continue lengthy road trip vs. Nets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls are in the midst of a nine-game road trip
and will continue the lengthy trek tonight against the New Jersey Nets.
Chicago improved to 3-2 thus far on the road swing following Saturday's 113-90
victory at
Hawks hope to get healthy vs. Suns >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Known to be a formidable foe on their own court, the
Atlanta Hawks have stumbled a bit during a four-game homestand and look to
restore order at Philips Arena tonight versus the Phoenix Suns.
The Hawks have lost the first
Kansas City, MO - Kansas City has not officially named Matt Cassel its starting quarterback, but there can be no doubt now.
NFL Betting
After praising his leadership and work ethic through spring workouts, the Chiefs announced Tuesday they had signed the 27-year-old Cassel to a multiyear contract. Terms were not disclosed, but he will almost certainly be one of the highest-paid members of the team.
"We are excited to be able to reach a long-term agreement for Matt Cassel to be a Kansas City Chief for many years to come," owner and board chairman Clark Hunt said in a statement. "His proven leadership on and off the field will be a tremendous asset to the organization."
Patriots made him their franchise player, meaning his salary for this season will be about $15 million.
New head coach Todd Haley, taking over for Herm Edwards after a 2-14 season, refused to name a starter at any position during offseason workouts. But it was obvious to everyone the team belonged to Cassel.
"I go out there each and every day with that focus that I'm the starter," Cassel said during a June minicamp. "Competition brings out the best in everybody."
The signing will come as welcome news to Cassel's new coaches and teammates. Amiable and hardworking, online football betting he appeared to win over everyone at minicamp.
"I think he's got some unique leadership qualities. I think his teammates like him and have respect for him. I think he's doing a pretty good job on the field, too," Haley said last month. "He's doing everything that I'm asking him, that our coaches are asking him to do. I don't have one single complaint how he's carrying himself."
After one workout, wide receiver Devard Darling declared Cassel "a breath of fresh air."
"He has a lot of swagger, a lot of confidence. It's good for us," said Darling. "We trust in him that he's going to go out there and lead us all the way."
nse to accommodate his specific abilities.
Trapped on the bench behind Heisman winners Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC and then unable to unseat Super Bowl MVP Brady at New England, Cassel seemed destined to be a backup all his life. As Brady was helped off the field last September, Cassel seized the opportunity he'd been waiting for since high school.
In his only sustained action since his teens, he hit 349 of 555 passes for 3,949 yards at New England. He had 23 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions as the Patriots, who had gone unbeaten through the regular season the year before, finished 11-5 and out of the playoffs.
Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli, who had been Bill Belichick's assistant in New England, engineered the trade after the Patriots became convinced that Brady would recover fully from his knee operation.
"Since Matt arrived in Kansas City, he has embraced the team and the community," Pioli said. "His work ethic, his ability and competitive presence is what we expect from our players."
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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