Bayern held by Hamburg at Imtech Arena

Soccer Betting Lines

02/04/2012 - Hamburg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bayern Munich fell two points off the pace of first-place Borussia Dortmund on Saturday after it was held to a 1-1 draw at the Imtech Arena by Hamburg.

Borussia Dortmund claimed sole possession of first place in the Bundesliga on Friday with a 2-0 win over Nurnberg, placing additional pressure on Bayern and Schalke in their Saturday contests.

But neither team was able to keep pace this week as they were both only able to produce one point for their efforts.

Bayern faced a difficult test at the Imtech Arena when Italian midfielder Jacopo Sala put Hamburg in front in the 23rd minute.

It took the visitors nearly 50 minutes to equalize, but the breakthrough finally came in the 71st minute through Ivica Olic.

The draw means that both teams have managed to take just four points from their last three games.

Bayern's once comfortable lead in Germany's top flight has vanished as it sits tied with Schalke for second place on 41 points.

Hamburg, meanwhile, improves to 23 points where it is tied with Stuttgart for 10th place in the Bundesliga.

Bayer Leverkusen 2, Stuttgart 2

Leverkusen, Germany - There was high drama at the BayArena on Saturday as Bayer Leverkusen and Stuttgart played to a 2-2 draw with both sides being reduced to 10 men.

Stefan Kiessling and Julian Schieber traded first-half goals as the two teams headed into the break tied at a goal apiece. Simon Rolfes then converted a penalty kick two minutes into a second period littered with yellow cards. Michal Kadlec was sent off for Bayer Leverkusen, as was Cristian Molinaro for Stuttgart. The visitors left it late to add even more drama to the affair, as Martin Harnik netted in second-half stoppage time to earn a share of the points.

Bayer Leverkusen has drawn two straight as it sits nine points adrift of a place in the top four, while Stuttgart snaps a four-game losing skid in league play to remain mid-table.

Hannover 1, Hertha Berlin 0

Berlin, Germany - Hannover won its second-straight Bundesliga match on Saturday, edging 10-man Hertha Berlin 1-0.

Mohammed Abdellaoue recorded the only goal of the game in the 68th minute, eight minutes before Sebastian Neumann was given his marching orders for picking up his second yellow card.

Hertha Berlin has lost three straight as it remains just two points above the relegation zone, while Hannover, unbeaten in its last seven Bundesliga contests, occupies seventh place on 30 points.

Schalke 1, Mainz 1

Gelsenkirchen, Germany - Schalke and Mainz traded goals on opposite sides of halftime as the two clubs played to a 1-1 draw at the Veltins-Arena on Saturday.

Mainz took the lead 14 minutes into the first half through Mohamed Zidan's first goal of the Bundesliga season, but Chinedu Obasi, on loan from Hoffenheim, equalized for Schalke 14 minutes into the second half.

It was a costly draw for Schalke as it falls two points behind Bundesliga leaders Borussia Dortmund. Mainz, meanwhile, sits in 12th place on 22 points.

Hoffenheim 2, Augsburg 2

Sinsheim, Germany - Hoffenheim went back and forth at the Rhein-Neckar Arena on Saturday as the two sides came out even in a 2-2 draw.

Sascha Molders put the visitors in front in the 31st minute, but Hoffenheim responded immediately as Peniel Mlapa equalized seven minutes later. The second half saw Hoffenheim go in front after Roberto Firmino converted a penalty kick in the 52nd minute, but Augsburg was able to tie it up in the 72nd minute thanks to a goal from Sebastian Langkamp.

Hoffenheim has drawn three of its last four Bundesliga matches and sits eighth with 24 points, while Augsburg has drawn two straight to remain in the relegation zone on 17 points.

Wolfsburg 0, Monchengladbach 0

Wolfsburg, Germany - Wolfsburg and Monchengladbach produced a stalemate at Volkswagen Arena as they played to a 0-0 draw on Saturday.

Wolfsburg remains tied with Hoffenheim on 24 points while Monchengladbach misses out on the opportunity to move into second place as it stays fourth on 40 points.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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